Academic reasoning and literacy-based tests: evaluating their effectiveness in predicting prospective students' potential in Indonesia

The enrollment test for prospective students at Islamic State Universities (Perguruan Tinggi Keagamaan Islam Negeri, or PTKIN) in Indonesia carries significant implications-not only for the students themselves but also within the broader social context. Consequently, there is a pressing need for a valid selection instrument capable of objectively predicting the academic potential of prospective students. This study aims to assess the effectiveness of academic reasoning and literacy-based tests as predictors of academic potential among PTKIN applicants. This research adopts a cross-sectional design to analyze the relationship between UMPTKIN scores and students’ Grade Point Averages (GPAs) during their first two semesters. The dataset comprises 2023 UMPTKIN scores and GPAs of 2,161 students from UIN Syarif Hidayatullah Jakarta and UIN Alauddin Makassar. Data were obtained from the National UMPTKIN Committee and the Information Technology Centers and Databases of the respective PTKINs. Data analysis was conducted using SPSS 24, employing descriptive statistics, Pearson correlation, and multiple linear regression. The results reveal a weak correlation between academic reasoning and literacy scores and students' academic performance, though the degree of influence varies across academic programs. These findings underscore the need to develop more targeted selection approaches aligned with the specific characteristics of each academic program in order to enhance academic outcomes at PTKINs. Accordingly, policymakers involved in student selection processes should prioritize the development and implementation of more valid and program-sensitive selection instruments